We are seeing lots of reports in the media about the housing market falling in 2023 and the Halifax even predict an 8% fall in prices. This is undoubtedly scary to read but it is also not surprising when we think about the cost-of-living crisis and the rising interest rates. If we take a step back and look at the bigger picture we can start to put some of these headlines into context. Although we can only predict the future of the housing market rather than tell for certain, having some oversight of the recent trends makes these scary headlines and predictions more palatable.
As the housing market started to emerge from the first COVID lockdown in May 2020 we saw a huge increase in activity and then the government gifted the stamp duty holiday, this caused a massive influx of supply and demand and pushed house prices up at an alarming rate! House prices reached the highest in over a decade peaking at annual inflation of 13.2% up to the end of 2021. If we look even closer to home and consider the increase in York house prices then we can see from reports that York had the highest increase in house price inflation for the whole of England and Wales! This is reported by Halifax to be a 41.9% increase in house prices since March 2020 and certainly reflects what we have experienced at Indigo Greens since the COVID pandemic.
If an 8% decrease in house prices happens in 2023 then this will only put house prices back to where they were in April 2021 nationally, which only skims the top of some of the gains made in house prices during the pandemic.
For York this would simply be a small readjustment in prices and expectations of selling times, similar to what we have already seen at the end of 2022. York has always been a bubble in the northern housing market, we don’t expect any dramatic drops in housing demand any time soon and ultimately this is what keeps our housing prices strong.
If you are looking to buy in York my advice would be: Don’t try to anticipate the best time for the market, the best time to buy is when you find the perfect house and you can afford it.
Written by Emma
Source Bank of England - How much of the housing price increase during the Covid pandemic was driven by a change in household preferences? Halifax - Halifax UK housing market review and outlook 2023
